WHY PDP WINS ELECTIONS IN NIGERIA
By Nwokedi Nworisara
Someone gave me a call after my recent appearance on AIT programmes focus on Nigeria live and demanded reasons why I seem to have shifted from being an opposition figure to supporting the ruling party in Bayelsa State.”How can you explain it to your dedicated readers?’ He fumed. I corrected that I had not changed my views, nor made a u-turn from any thing I wrote or said. Instead, what is playing out is the Nigerian revolution. It may not look as beautiful as the theory but it is what it is. It plays out in line with the choice we made at the formation stages. Refer to the articles: “Nigeria needs revolution”; “What the 2011 elections portend for Nigeria”; “Overview of the Nigerian revolution”, you will see that this writer called for a peaceful revolution in Nigeria. I did not call for a civil war or separation because these will be no revolution. A revolution adds to what exists. It does not remove or destroy an existing entity. The French, Soviet Revolutions did not balkanize their countries but instead united them. It would have come out differently if our leaders and my fellow travelers heeded my call for a quick restructuring of the country through targeted legislative laws like the review of the constitution to create a Nigerian citizenship. Instead everyone appeared to be eager to shine planning to occupy the same seat they pretended to loath under the same conditions. Shear hypocrisy! You can imagine the display of ignorance by those who claimed to know. They were really after their own pockets hiding under the false respectability of my call for Revolution to deceive the masses .Today; some of them have now started collecting money from extremist terrorist organization without realizing the outcome of their actions.
Well you know that we agreed over how to get Nigeria out of the woods. The cleavage came to the fore along the line of theoretical formation stages when I warned Nigerians not to stand for less than overall structural changes in the polity but some of today’s motley crowd of Presidential candidates and running mates opposed my definition of revolution and preferred to deceive Nigerians into believing that what mattered was the person not the system. They argued to the effect that a “Good candidate” can change a system, and so they refused to pile pressure for proper constitutional and electoral reforms to precede elections because they wanted to quickly fulfill their selfish ambitions to perpetuate the sufferings of the people for another span. Did they really think about it properly I often wonder to myself .Now how do you get a good person there without becoming bad first by obeying the bad laws? And if the person becomes bad to get there his conscience is likely to be sealed while his agenda changes to survival and perpetuation in office in office. These people unfortunately constituted the majority of pseudo knowledge purveyors who threw away Nigeria’s golden chance on the platter of political expediency. I knew immediately the fate awaiting Nigerians and I wrote it down. These intellectual calculators want to rule Nigeria by all means even when they know that the ground does not favor them. Their new dubious Strategy of victory lies in destroying the institution, verbally, or otherwise. It is hypocrisy to aspire to a seat you wish to destroy, or you want destroyed before you get there because there may be nothing to sit on. These people want a bloody revolution as long as it guarantees them the seat and then they plan to sit there resisting any meaningful change. Is it any different with what the ruling party is accused of doing or are we preparing to replace one opponent with another?
Today you notice them making so many references to the Egyptian revolt as if a Mubarak is in Nigeria. They plan to build it up as plan B. It is true the repressive Military intelligence has not been changed for 40 years in Nigeria and continue to determine who gets what, when and how in the polity as well as who gets sabotaged, where, when and for what reasons. But then they remain safely protected outside the polity that is held accountable by Nigerians. Take for example the Port Harcourt Stadium Stampede believed to have been caused by overzealous security men who fired into the air to scare people. It could have been sabotage but look who takes the blame-the ruling party. How on earth would you want to sabotage your own successful outing? Such things will continue to happen as long as neither the President nor his party does controls the security agencies. Only restructuring will do the magic here but be sure that unseen hands will continue to fight it. They will recruit these same Nigerians these same incompetent and illogical rabble rousers parading themselves as savior of the masses to destroy such opportunities as we had last time. These people are always the first to scramble to join each half baked political process since 1967 and of course as expected the majority carries the vote. Also the majority carries the brunt. So we almost always decide to strengthen the status Quo as a deluded strategy of changing it. Today they cry foul because we all have been compelled to go the way of their logic. How do you beat someone in the game he founded and even trained you to play? The People Democratic Party has only manipulated the system to their advantage and you willingly played along so why complain halfway to your political demise and try to foment trouble because you are losing grounds or bring about bloodshed on innocent masses you earlier deceived?
I did not explain all these to the caller under his persisting call credit regime but promised to do this article. I see that many others need this explanation which I have put off until now. Today you have it. Now you will not say you were not warned in good time as to what your vote means. As long as we all chose to push the then Vice President Goodluck Jonathan into office in a national referendum, we have all decided irrevocably stand by him in the course of this assignment and that gives him an edge over his challengers. Like I said I am not necessarily a lover of PDP, nor did I support the quick election strategy we decided upon at that formative stage of the Nigerian revolution but I know what political responsibility is and here it dictates that I support the national decision since I do not wish to join another country. So long as PDP has excellent structures on the ground, so long as the opposition is disorganized and lack experience in this political system even when they paved the way to it, PDP is more likely to win. The only way the party will not win the elections is if there are crises to the proportion that leads to the suspension of this constitution, but then they would not have lost all the same. Everyone would have lost for we have only one country to build and its continual existence gives us and our children hope for a better tomorrow.
Talking of strategies open to the opposition, there is the conspiracy going on which unfortunately also repels me from the so called opposition grandstanding: Gang up against the ruling party. This dangerous trend must be stopped not for obvious reasons but because of its underlying ulterior motive. It has Arab funding. Don’t get me wrong. This is not bad in itself. Some already argue that it helps to provide a level playing field which the constitution, the skewed electoral law coupled with institutional impotence vis a vis policing and judiciary have failed to provide. However the bad news is that it gradually,imperceptibly introduces its own imbalance in terms of National direction. It raises the dangerous specter of religious disharmony and eventual political crises of unfathomable proportions. I warn the innocent perpetrators to beware. Shine your eyes now. Nigerians should have nothing to do with the Al Queda. Even if it seems that both have coincidental goals, it should be resisted. These people have no immediate country to call their own, do you want to be like them? What about the masses? Think again before you go along with that plan.
Now back to the nitty gritty. Why is it that I am so particular about Bayelsa State? Simple! You may not knw it, Bayelsa Sate has been chosen as the flash point for this plot. But there is a snag here. There is what they refer as a “little obstacle”. There is a man of peace here. The Man of Peace is Governor Timipre Sylva. In the guise of State gubernatorial election, the plot is to awaken and fund a lethal opposition which will spark off fire from this backyard innocently benefiting from a well oiled blanket of media ignorance on the entire nation, eliciting sympathy through the promotion of falsehood. The target is not really that man of peace who happens to stand in the way at this time but President Goodluck Jonathan whom it is planned to humiliate at home. They know they do not stand a chance but their damage value is being increased. Let’s face it the final target is not even really President Jonathan but you, the Nigerian nation as a whole. For those advocating rotation, these goals will coincide perfectly only until the need to carry arms has been entrenched before the naked truth surfaces at the international level. I can see the nations already arraigned against each other. The true meaning of events only comes to the fore in stages and with the blanket over the media no one will decipher that this so called “revolution” is not actually in the interest of Nigeria but may not be realized until it is too late.
Unfortunately for these conspirators, I will not sit back and fold my hands while Nigeria is threatened. I am sure you yourself will do like wise. I believe a peaceful constructive revolution is possible and has already begun in Nigeria. Sadly, we nearly lost it when we chose immediate elections instead of proper constitution and electoral reforms and we have to suffer from the inadequacies now manifesting in the political process. All political leaders and followers must remain law abiding to the majority decision or volition. We have no other way. We must not allow the heinous plot of faceless people to derail the elections from Bayelsa State. Next time they tell you about ganging up against the President and the ruling party, about voting for President Jonathan by voting against his party in the state, you know where they are going. Next time they pay you ten thousand naira to spread yourselves across a peaceful crowd and throw stones at the podium or fire gunshots at gatherings or stone and deface bill boards of the President or other candidates at night, you know now what your action could bring to you and the nation at large.
*Mr. Nworisara, a Political analyst, aspired to be President of Nigeria in 1992